Based on year-to-date growth and the current economic outlook, ArcelorMittal expects global apparent steel consumption to grow further in 2019 by between +1.0% to +1.5% (up from previous expectation of +0.5% to +1.0% growth). ArcelorMittal expects ASC in US to grow by +0.5% to +1.5% in 2019 (no change from previous expectation), driven by continued growth in machinery and non-residential construction. In Europe, driven by weak manufacturing and declining automotive production, demand is now expected to contract by up to -1.0% (versus previous expectation of a slight growth of up to +1.0%). In Brazil, our 2019 ASC forecasts have been slightly moderated to grow in a range of +3.0% to +4.0% (from previous expectation of +3.5% to +4.5%) after weaker than expected economic growth early in 2019. In the CIS, ASC is expected to grow +1.0% to +2.0% in 2019 (no change from previous expectation).
Overall, World ex-China ASC is expected to grow by approximately +1.0% to +2.0% in 2019 (down from previous expectation of +2.0% to +3.0%). In China, overall demand is expected to now grow by between +0% to +1.0% in 2019 (up from previous forecast for a contraction in demand by -0.5% to -1.5%), due to economic stimulus and as real estate demand continues to surprise on the upside.
Source : STRATEGIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE, STEELGURU