Hello! Good to be back.
Paper markets are universally weak, plumbing new lows daily, although rebar futures were flat Friday. Physical is no better with rebar sliding relentlessly, ore spot is biased to test its 2012 low and the Baltic Dry capesize’s little rally was snuffed out, down 4%. Port stocks fell marginally for a second week but remain epic.
There was a little easing in the Chinese property correction in May’s industrial production data released late Friday but only in the pace of the descent and it does not look about to stop. Importantly, that will continue to weigh on steel demand and amid the lousy news flow of last week, the most important factor was the 2% fall in CISA’s steel production fast data for late May. There is a firming possibility that we will see zero steel output growth in China this year.
Of course, there is also the Qingdao port probe to worry about but it’s all about fundamentals right now and they are fugly.
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