Global markets will recover, except for
China, to the same level as in 2021
The international credit rating agency Fitch Ratings
expects the global steel market, excluding China, to stabilize in 2023 to the
level of 2021. SteelOrbis reports
about it with the reference to the company’s data.
“The global steel sector will not fully
recover next year as supply and demand shift in favor of end users. As the
slowing of the global economy has ended a period of unusually high prices
supported by pent-up post-pandemic demand, producer profits are expected to be
low,” it said.
Fitch forecasts that global steel consumption will
decline by 60-65 million tonnes in 2022, and capacity utilization will fall
from 80% to 77% last year. At the same time, 20-30 million tons of the
specified amount will fall to China, which annually reduces steel production.
“The outlook for Europe’s steel companies
remains bleak amid high energy prices, a looming recession, declining consumer
confidence and the need to diversify steel supply chains. On the other hand,
sentiment has improved for the market of Turkiye, Brazil, India and North
America against the background of government infrastructure support and
protectionist measures,” the agency summarizes.
According to WorldSteel’s forecasts, in 2022, world consumption of steel will fall by 2.3%
compared to 2021 – to 1.796 billion tons. In 2023, steel consumption is
expected to increase by 1% – up to 1.814 billion tons
As GMK Center reported earlier, Fitch revised its expectations regarding thermal
coal prices for 2022 and 2023, while the forecast for iron ore and coking coal
remained at the previous level.
Thus, in 2022, the price of iron ore will be $115/t, in
2023 – $85/t, in 2024 – $75/t. At the end of this year, as Fitch expects, the
price of coking coal will be $370/t. In 2023 and 2024, it will decrease to
$200/t and $140/t, respectively.