Five months of strength for North American ferrous scrap prices is
expected to come to an end in May amid healthy inbound flows of material and
expectations of weaker demand, according to the latest Scrap Trends Outlook
The bearish sentiment pushed the Trend Indicator into negative
territory for May. The Outlook’s prediction model suggests that steel scrap
prices have the potential to fall even further in May.
Well over half of respondents to the survey expect steel scrap
prices to trend lower, while 29% forecast that prices would remain sideways.
Half of respondents said weaker demand would be the main driver, while 20%
pointed to unchanged market conditions.
Demand
drivers for steel scrap prices
Shredded scrap prices are expected to fall the most sharply amid
strong supply flows. The outlook for prime grades remains unclear, with demand
for No1 busheling reportedly still strong in some regions.
The overall trend consensus edged higher — to 59% — compared
with 57% in April, suggesting that confidence in the market’s direction has
improved. The three-month Indicator was in bearish territory, and the six-month
Indicator was also negative. Learn more.